NCAA Football Betting – Fresno State Bulldogs at Boise State Broncos
The Boise State Broncos (11-0 SU, 7-3 ATS) have one more roadblock in their path before they can declare an undefeated season. That comes in the form of the bowl-bound Fresno State Bulldogs (7-4 SU, 2-9 ATS) in NCAA college football sports betting action in the Western Athletic Conference, scheduled to kick off at 6 PM ET on Friday on the famous “Blue Carpet” at Broncos Stadium in Boise.
Friday, November 28
BetUS NCAA Football Sports Betting Odds: BOISE STATE -21
Here are some of the NCAA college football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
* FRES has covered one of its last ten games
* FRES has won 10 of its last 14 games SU
* FRES has covered one of its last five road games
* FRES has won seven of its last eight road games SU
* BSU has covered four of its last five games
* BSU has won 55 of its last 57 home games SU
Also…
* BSU has won and covered six of the last seven meetings
* Four of the last five meetings have gone UNDER the total
Fresno State was the team from the WAC who had BCS hopes at the season’s outset. Now it’s Boise State, the former Fiesta Bowl champ, that has the chance to end the season unbeaten and in the top ten. They are in fact there right now, ranked #9 on the Associated Press, Coaches’ and BCS lists. They’re averaging 37.5 points a game, but what is more impressive about the Broncos is the defense. It ranks fifth in scoring defense (12.5 ppg) and second in passing efficiency defense. Only twice have they given up more than 16 points – to Oregon and Nevada.
Does Fresno State have the same kind of offensive capability as those teams who managed to hang around against the Broncos? Tom Brandstater came into the year as one of the top senior prospects at the QB position. He hasn’t had the most outstanding season (17 TD’s, 9 INT’s) and has thrown for just 217 total yards in the last two weeks, playing with a bad ankle. His favorite target, tight end Bear Pascoe, has had just 12 catches the last five games as he’s also battled ankle problems.
The Bulldogs have shown quite a bit of balance in the rushing game, with Anthony Harding (691 yards), Lonyae Miller (676) and Ryan Mathews (593 yards) offering FSU a fresh back in there at all times.
There haven’t been very many freshmen quarterbacks better than Kellen Moore at Boise, who’s completed 69.7% of his passes with 23 touchdowns. Also, this is a very deep team in the backfield. Boise can throw a duo of Ian Johnson (610 yards) and Jeremy Avery (551 yards) out there, and then there’s DJ Harper, who had 153 yards in the win over Fresno last year. This puts a strain on Fresno’s defense, which has allowed over five yards a carry this season. But the Bulldogs are coming off their two best defensive efforts of the year.
Boise State is 18-8-1 ATS as a home favorite since 2004, but they are only 1-2-1 ATS this year. Fresno State has some explosiveness in the return game, and won on this field last year when they beat Georgia Tech in the Humanitarian Bowl. Yes, they have forced only 11 turnovers, and that, with the injuries, soft defensive line, and horrible pointspread performance (dropping nine of last ten against the number) could lean us to Boise State, but FSU has a habit of hanging in, suffering three of the four losses by a field goal. They have confidence coming into this game, and rememeber that under Pat Hill, this team backs down to no one. Let’s go with the Bulldogs, the 21-point underdog in the BetUS NCAA college football sports betting odds.